BofA Global Research has released its outlook for 2025, predicting a strong year for US equities amid macroeconomic uncertainty. The report suggests that the US economy will continue to show signs of productivity growth, with expectations that US economic and earnings growth will surpass those of other developed nations. The S&P 500 is forecasted to start the year strong and reach 6666 by the end of 2025.
Candace Browning, head of BofA Global Research, commented on the past year's economic performance: “In 2024, growth surprised to the upside and inflation moved in the right direction, allowing central banks to start easing, risk assets to perform well, and global equities to reach new highs.” However, she noted increased policy uncertainty as we enter 2025. "Many of the expected policy shifts should be positive for US equities," she added.
Savita Subramanian, head of US Equity Strategy at BofA Global Research, anticipates more than a 10% upward potential for the S&P in 2025. Aditya Bhave, senior US economist, estimates GDP growth at 2.4% year-over-year in 2025. He believes improved productivity and supportive fiscal policies could drive this growth.
The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice before pausing next year. Mark Cabana from BofA predicts a tight trading range for the US 10-year Treasury yield between 4-4.5%.
Francisco Blanch forecasts a weakening demand for key commodities like oil due to oversupply but expects gold prices might peak at $3,000 per ounce after early challenges in the year.
In currency markets, Alex Cohen anticipates strength in the USD through mid-2025 before depreciation sets in due to uncertain policy and growth outlooks.
David Hauner warns of short-term risks for emerging market assets but suggests possible improvement once trade policies become clearer.
The report also highlights potential cyclical strength in various sectors within the US economy attributed partly to political changes and historical underinvestment.
China's real GDP growth is projected by Helen Qiao to slow down to 4.5% yoy with domestic stimulus countering tariff impacts over time.
European equity markets may see initial declines followed by recovery towards current levels according to Sebastian Raedler’s analysis.
BofA Global Research maintains coverage on approximately 3,500 stocks worldwide and continues receiving high rankings across multiple external surveys including recognition from Institutional Investor magazine as No.2 Global Research Firm in recent years.
Bank of America remains one of leading financial institutions globally offering diverse banking services across numerous countries while being listed on NYSE under BAC ticker symbol.
For further inquiries or information about these projections contact Melissa Anchan via phone at +1-646-532-9241 or email melissa.anchan@bofa.com