New research by Oxford Economics Research indicates that the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill, introduced in 2023, could lead to a $227 billion reduction in U.S. economic activity and result in approximately 156,000 job losses. The study highlights the potential negative effects on cities and states dependent on tourism, suggesting significant declines in consumer spending and employment.
Richard Hunt of the Electronic Payments Coalition expressed concern over the findings: “This new study proves the Durbin-Marshall bill is a jobs killer. The U.S. economy cannot afford a quarter-trillion dollar hit and workers in cities across the country should not have to suffer so corporate megastores can pad their profits.”
Neil Walker from Oxford Economics emphasized local impacts: “The potential national impact of this bill is significant; however, the effects at the local level are even more pronounced.”
The report suggests that mandates from the Durbin-Marshall bill would force credit card issuers to reduce rewards and benefits, leading to an estimated $80 billion decrease in consumer discretionary spending over four years. This scenario is likened to previous regulations affecting debit card markets.
Liliam López of the South Florida Hispanic Chamber of Commerce warned about regional consequences: “This study confirms what we already knew: the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill would be devastating for South Florida’s economy and small businesses.”
Tourism plays a crucial role in supporting nearly 15 million American jobs with direct spending reaching $1.2 trillion in 2022. The proposed legislation could severely affect destination markets reliant on travel-related revenue.
Chris Romer from Vail Valley Partnership commented on possible regional losses: “Businesses and families across the Vail Valley rely on the revenue tourism brings to our community... Here in Colorado, we would see losses of over $200 million over a four-year period.”
Oxford Economics utilized various models to evaluate how reduced rewards programs might impact sectors such as retail trade, transport services, health, arts, and hotels. Their analysis was informed by input from industry stakeholders provided by the Electronic Payments Coalition.
Oxford Economics is recognized globally for its economic advisory services covering numerous countries and sectors. It was established as a commercial venture linked with Oxford University’s business college.
The Electronic Payments Coalition represents entities involved in electronic payments infrastructure including credit unions and community banks.