AFSA member companies reported a generally positive assessment of business conditions in the first quarter of 2025, according to the AFSA's Q1 Consumer Credit Conditions Index Survey (C3 Survey). However, the margin between those with positive and negative views was narrower compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. This trend was observed across overall business conditions and various indicators included in the survey.
The C3 Index is derived from a quarterly survey among AFSA's members, who are key providers of consumer credit. Participants share their perspectives on current business conditions affecting their ability to serve consumers requiring credit, as well as their expectations for the next six months. The index offers insights beyond typical industry sentiment surveys or government reports.
The Net Increasing Index (NII) for current overall business conditions remained positive for the third consecutive quarter at +15.6. This figure was lower than the +21.4 recorded in Q4 2024 but higher than in each of the first three quarters of last year. The NII represents the percentage difference between lenders reporting improved versus worsened conditions.
Similarly, outlooks for the next six months were also positive but less optimistic than recent quarters, with an NII of +14.3—significantly below last year's Q4 figure of +50.0 and slightly under Q3's +18.9.
Survey results highlight conflicting economic trends: federal financial regulation has moved away from previous adversarial positions, yet uncertainty around trade policies, job markets, rising prices for basic goods, and credit access has caused market volatility and affected confidence levels.
Respondents' assessments indicated continued improvement during early 2025 but were more subdued compared to Q4 2024 regarding loan demand and funding costs. Conversely, current loan performance turned positive on balance for the first time since survey inception; however, future loan performance projections only broke even with an NRI of 0 compared to a previous +51.2.
Detailed results from this survey can be found on Case for Credit.