Pollsters are closely monitoring the East Coast states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia as Election Day approaches. A recent Washington Post poll from Pennsylvania highlights the tight race for the White House and its impact on down-ballot races.

A week after the presidential debate, Vice President Harris is favored by 48 percent of both likely voters and registered voters. In the same poll, former President Trump is favored by 47 percent of both likely voters and registered voters. After excluding third-party candidates, Harris and Trump are tied at 48 percent among likely voters. If Harris loses Pennsylvania, she would need to win either Georgia or North Carolina to secure the presidency.

The close race in Pennsylvania is not unexpected. In 2016, Trump won the state by less than a percentage point. In 2020, Biden carried it by one percentage point or 80,000 votes. The more surprising development has been in the Senate race between incumbent Senator Bob Casey (D) and businessman Dave McCormick (R).

The same September 12-16 poll shows the two Senate candidates tied at 48 percent among likely voters. Senator Casey won his seat in 2018 with nearly 57 percent of the vote, but before this poll, McCormick had been trailing Casey by several percentage points. To maintain their slim Senate majority, Democrats must hold onto the Pennsylvania seat.

September 25th, 2024