Timothy Gill, Vice President and Chief Economist of the American Financial Services Association (AFSA), said that non-housing consumer credit has contracted for three consecutive months, indicating a worsening environment for household borrowing. This statement was made in a newsletter on April 8.
"Green shoots emerged last fall, but the downward movement has resumed in recent months," said Gill, Vice President, Research & Chief Economist. "The downtrend has accelerated with balance growth now in modest contraction for three consecutive months. The hard data is consistent with household sentiment that credit is difficult to obtain."
According to the newsletter analysis, non-housing consumer credit declined for the third consecutive month in February, decreasing by 0.2% month-over-month and 1.0% year-over-year, marking the largest annual drop in over 14 years. Revolving credit increased slightly by 0.1% from January but remained down by 1.2% compared to the previous year, while non-revolving balances fell by 0.3% month-over-month and 1.0% year-over-year. This represents the third straight month of annual declines in both total and revolving consumer credit.
The Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit report indicates that revolving credit, primarily composed of credit cards, declined at an annual rate of 2.7% in February 2025, following a fall of 1.5% in January. Non-revolving credit, which includes student and auto loans, remained relatively stable. Overall, total consumer credit decreased for two consecutive months, suggesting ongoing consumer retrenchment.
The New York Fed’s 2024 Q4 Household Debt and Credit Report reveals that credit card balances fell by $14 billion, with new credit originations across categories declining. Additionally, the share of consumers reporting rejection or difficult access to credit rose to its highest level since 2013, highlighting tightening lending standards.
Gill is also noted as the Vice President of Research and Chief Economist at AFSA on his LinkedIn profile. He possesses over 25 years of experience in economic analysis across leading trade associations and holds the Certified Business Economist designation along with advanced degrees in economics from Miami University and John Carroll University.